1st October is not Nigerian Independence?

By Dr. Ahmed Adamu

States and settlements existed in Nigeria long before the illegal slavery and invasion of the West into West Africa. Edo Empire was one of the oldest and one of the highly established states in West Africa since the eleventh century, and it had organised social institutions. This later expanded to form the Oduduwa kingdom.  The Songhai Empire was the largest independent state in the history of Africa then, and it existed in 15th and 16th centuries. This empire spanned across northern and western Nigeria too. Even though the people of South Eastern Nigeria were politically and socially organised, they were under fragmental empires, popular of which is Nri Kingdom. An independent Islamic empire/caliphate also existed in most parts of northern Nigeria in the early 19th century. This empire linked with over 30 traditional leadership systems called the emirates. The caliphate ruled over 10 million people, making it one of the most significant empires in Africa in the 19th century. There were over 12 Kingdoms that existed in Nigeria before the invasion of Europeans into the country.

All settlements and states in Nigeria that existed before the invasion of the Europeans were independent, and socially and politically organised. Trade and agriculture were the major businesses then. In 1650, Europeans first invaded West Africa and illegally traded people of the area as slaves. From 1790 to 1807, the British purchased up to 2000 slaves every year in Lagos alone. Many free people from the above settlements were forced to become slaves against their wishes. They were taken to Europe and America to serve. They toiled and were abused and persecuted. This continued until 1807.

After abolishing slavery, the Europeans re-invaded Nigeria as missionaries, traders, and resource exploiters. In 1861, they started to take control and influence social and political systems in Nigerian communities. First, directly and later indirectly. A sovereign and independent states now became under control. By 1901, Nigeria became completely under British control, and by 1914, all the Nigerian protectorates were merged together and named “Nigeria” under Federick Lugard’s rulerships. This control lasted until 1st October 1960 after long agitations for Nigeria’s so-called independence.

Therefore, celebrating Nigeria’s independence on 1st October is uncalled for, because, Nigeria and the parts that made up modern Nigeria were naturally independent, socially organised and politically sovereign. The two invasions (slavery and colonialization) were unwanted and unnecessary. Marking and celebrating the end of these illegal invasions is indirectly recognising and endorsing them. So, 1st October 1960 is not Nigerian independence. 1st October only reminds us when the then illegal invaders left our shores. The amalgamation of the different kingdoms of Nigeria can be commemorated to symbolise and remind us of our unity in diversity, and to reflect back on our founding values and heritages.

The slavery and colonialization of Nigeria left a negative psychological footprint of low self-esteem and inferiority. The invaders came to convert free men to slaves and exploit resources in Africa so they can build their countries. This remanence caused backwardness to the continent and the country economically to date. Presently, we see how a shock in a foreign economy or a foreign currency directly affects the Nigerian Economy. The time when Nigeria was supposed to develop policies and resources to build its economy, it was colonised in the interest of the West. This foundation of dependence and rulership made it difficult for the country to build a resilient nation. Though, some of the country’s leaders played their roles in exposing the country more to external shocks for failing to build the real sectors of the economy and infrastructures.

At the time when Europe was developing, Africans were made slaves, building other people’s nations. Yet, after abolishing slavery, the illegal slave owners were compensated, but the so-called slaves were not. The so-called slaves were in better positions to be compensated for their persecution, this compensation should have been paid to their countries to rebuild what they have lost due to the exploitations.

Finally, like the second paragraph of the US declaration of independence stated, “All men are created equal, that they are endowed by their creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness”, this clause confessed the great error committed by the Europeans of turning others as slaves and for ruling other people’s lands against their wishes. The end of this error can be remembered anyway. Therefore, we can celebrate the departure of the invaders not our independence on 1st October, because we are all created free, and we existed with sovereignty long before the invasion of Europeans.

Dr. Ahmed Adamu,

Petroleum Economist,

Leadership and Personal Development Expert,

Superbrain Coach,

First Global Chairperson of Commonwealth  Youth Council,

University Lecturer (Economics), 

+2348188949144, +2348034458189

 

X-raying The Current Nigeria’s Economic Challenges: Prospects & Solution

By Dr. Ahmed Adamu

Recently, I have written and spoken on many media about the current economic crisis in Nigeria. Some of my recent articles can be accessed via my blog at www.ahmedadamu.blogspot.com.ng. Subsequently, I was invited to New York to speak on the above topic by the Nigerian Young Professional Forum, even though I could not make it to New York, I decided to write the following short piece as the extension (different perspective) of some of my recent articles on the Nigerian economic crisis, which was presented in the event.

Nigerians expect so much from the current administration, and this was as a result of the appealing and ambitious campaign promises during the elections by the ruling party. Coming to power, realities defer significantly from fantasies and expectations, the politicians are now caught in the cross-fire. Things are not going well, but they (politicians) decided to put the blame on the past administration, the easiest exit, though valid. However, things are continuously getting out of hand, but one thing that we all have to keep doing as citizens is to continue hoping and believing in “May Be”. May be if prices of crude oil increases, we might get out of recession. May be Naira will appreciate if we develop the real sector of the economy.

picture sourced from http://vincentnwani.com

According to the Sheikh Al-Maktoum (The King of Dubai), “Leaders must always look forward, further than anyone else, in order to anticipate the future, predict the challenges it will bring, and prepare their people to face them”. If the past administrations will have to take the blame for the current economic conditions for not saving to build the real sector and provide the necessary infrastructures, the current administration must also be ready to accept the responsibility of thinking about the future and the challenges it might hold, to avoid been blamed too. Therefore, there is need to develop the country’s economic roadmap for the next 20 years or more, and the plan of actions toward achieving the set targets.

Nigerian economy is cursed for relying heavily for so long on hydrocarbons and depending on the subsidised importation of foreign goods and services. Now due to low oil revenue, currency depreciation and increasing volume of importation, government cannot continue to subsidize foreign currency demand. Subsequently, inflation rose to the highest level of 17%, and foreign reserves declined to the decade’s lowest level of $26 billion. Poverty is becoming endemic as many depend on government, as access to business capital and infrastructure are lacking. This limited the disposable income and wellbeing of the people. Agricultural outputs are not optimised due to the outdated agricultural system. Population is on the increase amidst inadequate infrastructure and income. Which direction are we going? what is up in our front?, the government must give answers to many of these questions.

The challenges are numerous, and they must be identified and strategically chosen to address step by step. Things are moving very fast and problems are compounding quickly. There is need for aggression and proactiveness to address ever evolving economic challenges. Being so protective and too cautious will not auger well in the period of emergency. Action is the best way to solution.

Moving forward, the government must identify the major import demands and set targets and action plan to eliminate them. For example, government might set target of five years to stop importation of refined petroleum. How can we achieve that? we have to allocate substantial amount of resources and policies to encourage construction and development of local petroleum refining capability. This must be rigorous and inclusive, where private sector plays significant role. So, by the end of this five years, the 15% demand for foreign currency must be eliminated. So, the import demand will then reduce to 85%. In addition, the importation of plastics (4%) would have been eliminated as well. 

             

The Importation of vehicles, which constitute 8% of the total imports, can be eliminated too by providing efficient and adequate public transport systems, so that individuals would not need to own private vehicles, and the need to import them will not exist. So, there is need for rigorous development of inter and intra state public transport systems, which include within town and inter towns trains and public busses. This will result to reduction in the demand for transport fuels, and enable saving for other consumption and investment purposes. If can do this, the total imports by then will reduce to 73%.

Electronic equipment, machines, engines and pumps contribute 22% of the Nigerian imports; to reduce or eliminate some of these imports, public and private sector must collaborate to set up industries that produces these specific items. Foreign companies can also be invited to open factories or workshops within Nigeria, through any possible incentive. It is easy to achieve this due to the recent improvement in security and access to energy. Achieving this will reduce the import demand to around 50%. This is a feasible target, only if we plan for it.

If we can achieve above, then achieving local sufficiency for Pharmaceuticals, iron and steel will be easy. And funny enough, the $814 million spent for importation of fish in 2015 can be eliminated by encouraging and establishing fish rearing and processing firms.

Finally, if we can reduce the import demands by 50%, the Naira will appreciate significantly, and our foreign reserves will appreciate too. Unemployment, inflation and poverty will reduce. But, there has to be plan and commitment. This cannot be possible without competent economic team made up of public, private and academic sectors. There has to be genuine reduction in unnecessary expenditure from the government. Private individuals must stop unnecessary foreign trips for holidays, shopping, education, and medicals. Government can enforce this where necessary. The government must listen and be open to criticism and suggestions. It must effectively communicate and engage with public on its activities and plans.

Regarding the recent speculation about the sale of federal assets, I would advise the Federal government not to sell public assets, because these assets remit revenue that will stream for years to come. You don’t kill source of income for immediate need. You can only use the profit/earning for immediate need. Government needs to diversify sources of income not to switch source of income. Efficiency can be optimised even in public sector. Government should raise money through tax enforcement, open market operation, and infrastructure tax for high income earners. These public assets are the sources of income that can be used to fund infrastructural development and social welfare. Instead, government should motivate private sector to construct and operate infrastructures for a period after recovery. Private individuals willing to buy devalued public assets should partner to establish their own capital assets and compete with that of the government.

Best regards!

Dr. Ahmed Adamu,

Petroleum Economist and Development Expert,

Pioneer Global Chairperson of Commonwealth  Youth Council,

University Lecturer (Economics), Umaru Musa Yar’adua University Katsina.

+2348034458189

Leaders and Social Media Activists: A piece of Advice

picture sourced from www.gigaom.com
 

By Dr. Ahmed Adamu

My attention is drawn to the detention and arraignment of some social media activists in Katsina state. Prosecution of social media activists is not new in this country, as numerous social media commentators were interrogated, detained or imprisoned in the past at different levels and under different administrations (including the current administration). I write this small piece to give advice to both leaders and social media activists.

To Social Media Activists:

1.       When you get any news, investigate before you share. “O you who believe if an evil person comes to you with a news, verify it first, for fear that you may harm people in ignorance, and afterwards you become regretful to what you have done” Quran 49:6.  This mandates us to always confirm an information we hear from others, and teaches us that if we share unverified information, we will harm others and we will regret our action.  For initiators of false information, know that you are evils, and you should not endanger innocents by selling them fabricated news. Any news relating to government or any person should be verified by reaching out to the individual or government media aids. Any information that is not verified shall not be worthy of publication, no matter how appealing it will be to the audience. Prophet (SAW) said “Say the truth, or remain silent”. He also warned us to guard our tongue, and try our best to use it in the right direction. Investigative journalism is highly encouraged to avoid regrets.

2.       When you want to criticise or advice leaders, first do it in private if you have the chance. Prophet (SAW) said “whoever wants to advice a leader with a matter, he should not do so in public, but let him take him (the leader) by the hand and go into privacy with him and then advise him. If he accepts it from him then that is good, and if not, then he (the advisor) has fulfilled that which was upon him (to do).” So, the manner we are taught to criticise and advice rulers is first private. Leaders can be advised privately in the first instance. If there is no single opportunity to reach the leader, an open letter can be written in case someone close to the leader may come across it and deliver the message, but this has to be in respectful manner, and based on substantiated facts and evidences.

3.       It gives good feeling to be the first person break a news, and that is why some journalists are eager to share information to take the credit, and as such they cannot wait any longer to allow time for little and easy verification. They are afraid someone will share the news before them. My advice is that it is better to share truth late than to share false first. This adds to the integrity and reliability of your media outlets.

4.       We are all human, we can make mistakes. Anytime you share a wrong message, always be humble to use the same medium to discard it, and clarify issues immediately. Try and apologise to the individual or entities affected publicly.

5.       Social Media activists should not be subjective, they should be objective to criticise, advice and praise where necessary. This will make them reliable government performance indicators. They should give more advices than criticism, or both.

6.       Activists should note that freedom of expression allows people to express their own ideas and opinion freely through speech, writing, and other forms of communication BUT without deliberately causing harm to other’s character and/or reputation by false or misleading statements.

To Leaders:

1.       According to Carey Nieuwhof “Leaders should not focus on being liked, If they do, the won’t lead. As a leader you must be kind when people are not, even if it hurts and it will hurts “. Effective leaders must be prepared to be mocked, misunderstood, and misquoted. The Prophet was abused and attacked with negative words, and he was physically attacked. Garbage, stones and dusts were thrown at him. One day, when the daughter of the Prophet became angry and crying for her father’s humiliation, the Prophet told her “My daughter, weep not, for verily the Lord will be your father’s helper”. The Prophet was called madman, magician and many other evil names. He remained patience, he rather pray good for the people that hurt him.  He was advised by Allah (SWA) to be patient and respond with good actions: “So, be patient in the face of what they say” Quran 50:39. “Do not be grieved by what they say” 10:65.  “Repel the evil  with that (deed) which is better, and thereupon the one whom between you and him is enmity will become as though he was your devoted friends” 41:34. Therefore, leaders must be willing to accept people’s weakness and be kind to them, by this the politicians will be recruiting new allies that will vote for them in the future.

2.       In the modern democracy, elections are won far before the election time, and a leader is judged by the way he reacts in difficult circumstances. Maimonides said “I will destroy my enemies by converting them to friends”, and Robert Green said “a former enemy will be more loyal than a friend, because he has more to prove. In fact, you have more to fear from friends than from enemies. If you have no enemies, find a way to make them”. So enemies are not that so harmful to have.

3.       Leaders should identify all social media activists and give them the required capacity building, so that they can be more professional. They can be empowered with money to run their pages. Social activism is a form of formal job, so it can help in curbing unemployment and poverty.

4.       Leaders should create constant and frequent press briefings, where all media practitioners can attend and know about government works and ask any kind of question for clarification.

5.       As I observed, our political leaders now have many media aids, these aids should always put their eyes and ears on emerging rumours and updates on social media, and make clarification when necessary immediately. Leaders should not let people define who they are, they should always have to craft how they would want people to view them, this cannot be achieved without constant explanations and briefings especially to journalists.

6.       Government should not scare opposition, without opposition government cannot assess its performance, if oppositions are silenced, politicians would not know when they lose ground. If government observed too many valid opposition, it means it needs to adjust and do better.

      Finally, the people in authority should let go these young men, but caution them to be careful and put them on a professional training (if they are guilty). Who knows the politicians (under the current administration) might need them (and their followers) again in 2019. What I will recommend is reconciliation without the need to go to court. Government should not stoop so low to waste resources in prosecuting these poor young men. These young men are the children of government, they can make mistakes, and they can make it up. If they are found in any form character defamation of the government, they can be forced to apologise and undertake not to repeat it, and they should use their pages to counter their earlier posts.

      Let peace and harmony reign!!

Dr. Ahmed Adamu,

Petroleum Economist and Development Expert,

Pioneer Global Chairperson of Commonwealth  Youth Council,

University Lecturer (Economics), Umaru Musa Yar’adua University Katsina.

Change Begins With Who?: Social Learning and Islamic Theory Perspective

By Dr. Ahmed Adamu

The social reorientation campaign (#ChangeBeginsWithMe) launched by Mr President came with mixed reactions, as some think the President is the only one responsible for the change he promised Nigerians, and some have the opinion that change is an unconditional collective task for everyone.

Even though, President Buhari was the one that Promised to bring the change, but that does not mean we should not do our parts in bringing changes in our own lives for good. I agree with the theory of “Charity Begins at Home”, and Mr President should take this as a challenge to do more and promote the social changes he wants to see in people through action, i.e. examplenary leadership. President Buhari is generally known to be honest and trustworthy, then we ask ourselves, are we?

Mr President, just like any other Nigerian needs to change. But, whether Mr President changes or not, we need to change too. Change here entails identifying what you are doing that is not right and replacing it with better option. This can be in public and private life. So, change is a personal project for everybody.

The change we seek requires systematic and deep social changes, which entails changing norms of the people. Most of the good and bad things we do were learnt through socialisation (Social Learning Theory). A random act by one person can become a social norm for the entire population, and this act can be good or bad. So everyone can be a change agent. Who knows your random act might become a norm, so your action must be good always. People tend to consider and act tasks as normal behaviour when they grow up seeing people performing the task. That what makes them feel comfortable, otherwise they will feel excluded.

All of us we are mirror to some others, and they socially learn from us. Social learning takes place through observation or direct instruction even without enforcement. So we don’t have to instruct others to copy our actions. Therefore, we are all change agents. Example of how everyone can be a change agent can be described using traffic light scenario; if the first person to meet the red traffic lights stops, all others behind him will equally stops, but if he passes under red light, all others will copy and take it for granted. So, would you be a good leader or a bad one? Another example is to do with environmental sanitation, if you drop an empty sachet of pure water on a clean environment, others will also do the same, but if they see clean environment, they will hesitate to be the first to spoil it.

Change can be multidimensional, it may not necessarily has to do with actions, but in our values too. Changing our attitude and embracing Honesty, Trust, Selflessnesss, and Responsibility is also changing for good. When we stop measuring our success by the quantity of money and mighty of power we possess to by the scale of our honesty, trustworthiness, selflessness and responsibility, then we have changed for good, and others will change the same way. So, Change is the responsibility of everyone, and it has no best time to begin, and it does not require waiting for others to change first. When you wait for others to change, then there will never be a change.

For those that say Mr President should be responsible for social change, remember you can be the leaders that will change not only yourselves, but the president himself. The President might promise social changes, but he cannot do it, not without the people, and he has now given us opportunity through the #ChangeBeginsWithMe to change ourselves. Once we change our characters and attitudes for good, our lives will be blessed, and our leaders will change too, and our country will prosper.

In the Holy Quran, Allah said “Verily, Allah will not change the condition of a people as long as they do not change their conditions themselves” Quran 13:11. This means that, if we want to see change for good economic and social conditions we have to change for good first, and Allah will bless us, and give us a better life. Thereafter, He will not change for us our good condition until we change (stops) our good attitude. So, this call for change is timely for better economy. Similarly, Allah said “Whatever strikes you of disaster or misfortune, it is for what your hands have earned or committed” Quran 42:30, so the current economic calamity requires all of us to change, because we are punished for our bad characters, as “Whatever of evil befalls you is from yourself (your actions) Quran 4:79.

So, all of us are leaders for change, and we are required to be. Prophet Muhammad (SAW) said “Allah does not punish the individuals for the sins of the community until they see evil spreading among themselves, and while they have the power (even using their tongue) to stop it, but do not do so”. This teaches us that Change include stopping the bad things within your ability.

If we seriously need good leaders, then we have to be good people, because “your leadership will be a reflection of you (the people)” Prophet (SAW). So, we have to do our best to be good people, so that we can have good leaders. So, “Change Begins with Me” is our social, economic and political call, we all have to pitch in.

Change cannot happen on its own, not without mobilizers. Change is the collective responsibility of everyone, and it cannot happen without the people. Change from worse to better, Change from being unpatriotic to being patriotic, change from being irresponsible to being responsible, and change from silence to speaking, change from not doing anything to action etc. The change agents are the ones who refused to be cynical about what they can get done.

It is now up to the people, how do we help our neighbourhood and communities? How do we spend our extra income? Do we help others live to their potentials? Have we stopped collecting that little bribe? Did we quit that ghost job? How honest are we? Do we know what our elected public leaders get and spend? How can our voices matter in governance?  Have we called our members of parliament and tell them what we want?  Have we checked on them if they are doing their jobs?  Etc. the change require bigger actions, and the big action require all of us. Together we can keep changing this country for the better, and this is achieved through this campaign.

Change Begins With Me and You

Dr. Ahmed Adamu,

Petroleum Economist and Development Expert,

Pioneer Global Chairperson of Commonwealth  Youth Council,

University Lecturer (Economics), Umaru Musa Yar’adua University Katsina.

Dr. Ahmed Adamu’s Responses to Economic Recession Questions on Facebook.

Someone (Com. Ibrahim Bature) on Facebook asked me the following two questions relating to the current economic recession in Nigerian and these are my answers:

What is recession?

I will try and explain in lay terms. Recession is when country’s production level reduced in two consecutive quarters. For example, In Nigeria, the level of production of goods and services within its territory has declined by 0.40% in the first quarter of 2016 and further declined by 2.06% in the second quarter of 2016. Therefore, theoretically, Nigeria is in recession. This is the first time Nigeria entered recession in more than a decade. This can be further substantiated looking at the major economic indicators. Nigerian inflation currently stands at 17.1% the highest in a decade, unemployment rose to 13.3% the highest in six years, the value of Naira lost its value by 59.30% in just a year, and the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Reserve declined to $26 billion, the lowest in a decade. These indicators confirmed the technical recession in the country. In terms of Microeconomic, the purchasing power of disposable income has reduced, courtesy of the inflation, consumption have reduced, investment have declined, and households are willing to hold cash for fear of unknown rather than invest. Generally, the poverty has become endemic.

Leaders may make decisions that may not necessary be popular or result to immediate benefit to people. There are times when tough decisions have to be made to avoid bigger catastrophe. There might be some difficulties in turning the economy around, from commodity based to product based, and from infrastructural deficit to surplus. There has to be sacrifices, but people have to endure and do their parts. The economic condition in the country is the ramification of the past neglect of the real sector and reliance on the too much importation. So, we have to pay the price if we have to make it right.

How can we manage it, What are the quick solution to it?

Short term: Government must embark on rigorous and inclusive social investment through capital incentives and production grants, interest rate must be reduced to allow access to capital, Banks cash reserve ratio should be reduced, and importation of goods and services that are locally available should be discouraged especially through additional penalties. There should be incentive for importation of basic factor inputs. Individuals must stop unnecessary travels for health, educational and tourism purposes, and maximise utilization of local services.

We should encourage foreign investment through temporary tax holidays. There has to be reduction in government expenditure and save more for capital and social investment (I suppose this is ongoing). Specifically, convenient public transport systems have to be provided to reduce the total demand for petroleum products, so that people will drop their cars and use public transports. This will reduce the total demand for petroleum importation (the largest share of Nigerian import), it will also relieve households of the need to buy their own transport systems and save for other expenses and investment.

People have to adjust their expenditure and standard of living temporary. Unnecessary personal expenditures must be replaced with investment. Government should set deadline for the stoppage of importation of certain products and act rigorously toward sufficient and efficient production of these products within the country. However, the government must open land borders for importation of rice temporary until when sufficient local production capacity of the rice is achieved. Mechanisms to checkmate corruption at land borders must be provided, which might include reward and punishments for performance and lack of it respectively.

It is a good development to see how electricity supply is improving and relative security achieved in the country, this will encourage investment and reduce cost of production. Even though government intend to implement 30% of its budget for capital projects, it should simultaneously implement the recurrent expenditures. What the economy needs is financial liquidity in the short run. The current inflation is cost push inflation, not demand pull inflation, and if the ability of individuals to purchase goods and services is improved, the marginal cost of production will reduce, and eventually help reduce the inflation. However, the CBN has to watch the money supply and the prices to avoid possible resultant demand pull inflation.

Export promotion have to be made priority, which underpins the need for the development of the real sector, through subsidised production and standardisation of products. Lack of honesty and trust have killed thousands of businesses. Many people have started business, but have to close down due to lack of trust and honesty from the workers. Some investors have to delay or forfeit investments due to risks associated to lack of trust. Lack trust have also added to the cost of production, because, more staff have to be employed to ensure accountability and/or new machineries have to be acquired to checkmate flows of income. So, there is need for social reorientation.

Long run: finally, there has to be structural economic change, where exports will be higher than import. To achieve this there has to be establishment of more factories and refineries. Diversification of the economy is necessity to avoid being vulnerable to shocks in one sector. Agriculture and solid minerals development can be explored. Real sector production of textile, machineries, appliances, vehicles, processed foods, etc. has to be emphasized and incentivised. Tax collections should be a major source of government revenue, and this can be achieved if everyone is back to business, and that is the time when people will feel part and parcel of the government, because they have paid their taxes. And this will eliminate corruption, as people will demand accountability of the taxes they paid, and leaders will not waste people’s hard earn resources.

Dr. Ahmed Adamu,
Petroleum Economist and Development Expert,
Pioneer Global Chairperson of the Commonwealth Youth Council,
University Lecturer (Economics) at Umaru Musa Yar’adua University Katsina.